Blackjack Odds – Knowledge is Power
The key to getting good and winning big at blackjack is to understand how the game works. Sadly, this involves dealing with a lot of math. The difficult kind of math. Blackjack odds are an immensely interesting subject, and there are quite a lot of books written on that topic. Since blackjack is the only casino game that doesn’t completely rely on dumb luck, influencing the odds is possible, and leads to better win rate. The inherent house edge of the game is a measly 2%, and can be easily lowered down to almost nothing.
In this article, we will take a look at some interesting statistics and odds that relate to blackjack. After you are done reading it, you will surely be at least a bit less frightened by the horrible math that surrounds our favourite game. And you will definitely be a bit better at it.
The Odds of You Busting
| Hand Value | Bust Chance |
|---|---|
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 20 | 92% |
The opening hand you have is the most important thing in the game. You need to understand what your options are, and which one is the most logical and likely to succeed. A big part of that is knowing what are the odds of you busting when you hit. If your starting combination equals 11 or less, you are good – there is no way to bust, no matter what card you get. However, if your hand is over 12, here are your odds of losing with a single hit.
Obviously, the higher your initial hand is, the bigger the chance of you busting when taking one more. We can draw the following conclusion – never hit on a hand that is 17 or higher! Unless, of course, you don’t have a soft 17 (an Ace and a 6), in which case you should definitely hit.
You should also hit every soft hands below 17, and stand on soft 18, 19, or 20. This will give you the best odds of beating the dealer, by possibly turning your soft 17 into a 20, or 21. Hitting on higher soft hands is not recommended, though, since you are more likely to damage your odds, rather than raise them.
What Are the Chances of the Dealer Going Bust?
| Face Up Card | Bust Chance |
|---|---|
| 4 | 40.28% |
| 5 | 42.89% |
| 6 | 42.08% |
| 7 | 25.99% |
| 8 | 23.86% |
| 9 | 23.34% |
| 10 | 21.43% |
| A | 11.65% |
But enough about us – let’s take a look at the enemy. Good blackjack players take not only their hand in consideration, but the dealer’s hand as well. Seeing the face up card can actually give you a lot of information about what is going on – especially when it comes to the dealer’s chances of busting out. Here is a table that will give you all information on the subject.
A little more math tells us that the dealer has an average chance of 28.36% to bust on any given hand. The table tells us that 4, 5, and 6 have the highest chances of eventually busting the hand – so make sure you pay attention and spot them.
If you are in doubt about whether to stand or hit, take the bust chance of the dealer and compare it with yours. It will not be wise to hit when the dealer is more likely to bust than you. Play it smart and safe – this is how you get good at blackjack.
House Edge & How to Lower It
| Additional Rule | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack pays 6 to 5 | 1.45% |
| 8 Decks | 0.02% |
| Double only on 9, 10, 11 | 0.90% |
| Double only on 10 & 11 | 0.22 |
| No double after split | 0.13 |
| Resplit Aces | -0.06 |
| Double on any number of cards | -0.21 |
| Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.22% |
Every casino game has an inherent house edge – they are just created this way. Don’t forget that casinos exist to make profit, not give away money. Even though the casino advantage in blackjack is the lowest one of all casino games, it’s still there. Under favourable conditions and rules, it can be reduced even more – from 2% to around 0.50%. Here are some conditions that contribute to that low number. Needless to say, when playing with real money, you should look for tables with some of all of those rules.
- Blackjack pays the standard 3:2 rate
- You can double down after splitting
- You can double on any opening hand
- Dealer stands on all 17’s
Many online casinos feature those rules, making the game more profitable for the players. However, there are games that feature rules that do the exact opposite – they increase the casino advantage, thus decreasing the return-to-player percentage. Here is a list of the most common special rules you will encounter online. We included both rules that are advantageous for the players, and rules that are not.
You need to find yourself a blackjack game that doesn’t have too many negative variants, and a good number of positive ones. This way you will ensure the lowest house edge and the best odds for you. All those special rules are clearly visible at most online blackjack games, so missing something is pretty hard.
Knowing the Odds Is the Key to Winning at Blackjack
Good blackjack players know how to influence the odds in their favour. You don’t need to be a mathematical genius in order to do that – you just have to know the game. We hope you are feeling a bit more confident in your blackjack skills after reading this article. Make sure you check out our pages on basic strategy and card counting, on order to hone your skills even more. Good luck!
Written by: Alexander Birch